Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.579413 0.669889 0.768964 0.885387 1.018329 1.165278 1.339904
2025-06-08 0.411147 0.529622 0.672827 0.858111 1.090903 1.373068 1.740356
2025-06-15 0.349516 0.486538 0.664244 0.910354 1.240955 1.668106 2.260053
2025-06-22 0.281463 0.418339 0.606687 0.882788 1.274822 1.808693 2.587428
2025-06-29 0.232101 0.365477 0.558799 0.856596 1.300260 1.932445 2.895997
2025-07-06 0.195571 0.324514 0.520396 0.835890 1.326559 2.054468 3.207917
2025-07-13 0.175160 0.304654 0.509822 0.853669 1.409215 2.263219 3.663568
2025-07-20 0.163371 0.296600 0.515905 0.896897 1.533954 2.545006 4.254324
2025-07-27 0.150372 0.284400 0.513180 0.924401 1.634640 2.796141 4.816857
2025-08-03 0.136201 0.267992 0.500971 0.933664 1.704515 3.001693 5.320723
2025-08-10 0.122093 0.249633 0.482863 0.929904 1.750379 3.169358 5.772898
2025-08-17 0.109054 0.231439 0.462708 0.919691 1.782770 3.315093 6.197280
2025-08-24 0.097696 0.215299 0.445007 0.913008 1.822605 3.480346 6.676483
2025-08-31 0.085165 0.195050 0.417042 0.883594 1.817062 3.563815 7.016345
2025-09-07 0.082679 0.195657 0.430509 0.937216 1.976097 3.963668 7.974841
2025-09-14 0.072677 0.178369 0.405153 0.908877 1.969852 4.049787 8.344386
2025-09-21 0.064081 0.162979 0.381856 0.881953 1.963183 4.133375 8.714192
2025-09-28 0.056991 0.150057 0.362299 0.860668 1.965630 4.234239 9.125003
2025-10-05 0.053549 0.145461 0.360796 0.878944 2.053869 4.515234 9.922048
2025-10-12 0.052129 0.145713 0.370436 0.923379 2.203114 4.933564 11.034333
2025-10-19 0.049733 0.143115 0.373026 0.951649 2.318736 5.289784 12.042486
2025-10-26 0.046424 0.137627 0.367972 0.961170 2.392375 5.561365 12.889476
2025-11-02 0.042703 0.130463 0.357895 0.957306 2.434261 5.766285 13.605688